The Future of Artificial Intelligence: Predictions and Developments from Elon Musk

Stay informed with free updates

Simply sign up to the artificial intelligence myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox.

Elon Musk’s Bold Predictions on AI’s Future

According to Elon Musk, the capabilities of new artificial intelligence models are poised to surpass human intelligence by the end of next year, provided that electricity and hardware supply can meet the demands of this rapidly advancing technology.

The Timeline for Superhuman AI

Musk expressed his belief that we could witness AI that outperforms any single human by the end of 2024. Furthermore, he predicted that within five years, AI capabilities could surpass those of all humans. This prediction was articulated during an interview on X with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management.

The Evolution of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Musk has consistently championed the advancement of artificial general intelligence (AGI) — AI systems so sophisticated that they can outperform top human individuals in a variety of tasks. His recent timeline is notably more optimistic than past predictions, wherein he anticipated “full” AGI to be achieved by 2029.

It’s worth noting that some of Musk’s ambitious forecasts, including fully autonomous Teslas and successful manned Mars missions, remain unrealized.

Recent Breakthroughs in AI Technology

The last 18 months have seen remarkable advancements in AI technology. Innovations like video generation tools and enhanced chatbots have propelled AI development forward at an unprecedented pace. For instance, Demis Hassabis, co-founder of Google’s DeepMind, suggested earlier this year that AGI could be realized by 2030.

Supply Chain Challenges Affecting AI Development

Despite the rapid advancements, the progress of AI has been hampered by supply chain issues, particularly regarding microchips from Nvidia, which are crucial for developing and running AI models. Musk indicated that these constraints are starting to dissipate, yet new challenges such as the need for upgraded data center equipment and robust electricity supply are now surfacing.

He noted, “Last year it was chip constrained… this year it’s transitioning to a voltage transformer supply. In a year or two, the constraint is just electricity supply.”

The Paradox of Musk’s AI Enthusiasm

Musk’s enthusiasm for advancing AI systems sharply contrasts the cautious position he took last year, advocating for a halt in the development of advanced AI systems. He previously highlighted the “profound risks to society and humanity” associated with extremely powerful AI tools. At that time, he called for an immediate pause on systems more advanced than OpenAI’s GPT-4, currently a market leader.

xAI: Musk’s Entering the AI Arena

In a recent announcement, Musk revealed that his AI startup, xAI, is currently working on the second version of its model, named Grok, which they anticipate will surpass GPT-4. This new iteration is expected to be completed by May and will be followed by a significantly more powerful model.

Musk’s Investment Strategy in AI

Over the past year, Musk has increasingly concentrated efforts and resources on xAI. He is actively seeking to raise billions of dollars from investors across the US, Middle East, and Hong Kong to position xAI favorably in competition with OpenAI. Reports suggest this funding round could value the company at approximately $18 billion.

The Contentious Path in AI Development

Musk’s influence on AI development has been significant yet controversial. He co-founded OpenAI in 2015 but resigned from the organization in 2018 after disagreements with CEO Sam Altman regarding the research direction.

In March, Musk filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and Altman, alleging breach of contract and asserting that their focus had strayed from the commitment to create AI beneficial to humanity. OpenAI has vehemently denied these allegations.